• Chinese Economy’s “Good News” May Be Bad News for Stocks

    The source of genuine fundamental improvements in the Chinese economy can only come from the manufacturing sector…

  • What the new Brexit delay means for UK manufacturers?

    Capital spending and exports, the engines that drive the growth of British economy, entered lower gear due to weakening foreign demand and dragging uncertainty of Brexit.

  • No trace of “trade truce” in Chinese exports data

    The growth of Chinese exports in March offset decline in the first two months thanks to a combination of political, seasonal and economic factors. However, this recipe was useless to support imports, which is led by a prolonged decline in domestic consumption due to a fall in consumer confidence in China.

  • ECB acclimatizes to decision-making in perpetual gloom

    Whichever perspective the ECB chooses to evaluate the EU economy with, the resulting estimates lie in the range of “negative” to “neutral”, virtually ruling out a bullish surprise at today’s meeting.

  • OPEC’s small win in growing backwardation of WTI futures!

    Strengthening oil prices led the market in a relaxed and unexciting manner, to its highest level in five months. Growth is currently being fueled by expectations that a surge in violence in Libya could accelerate the market movement balance, towards a slight deficit. After being initiated by OPEC production cuts and US sanctions on supplies from Iran and Venezuela.

  • Side effects of negative rates as a primary short-term concern for the ECB

    After just one month, the ECB made a seemingly significant retreat in credit tightening policy, calling off the rate hike and announcing the extension of the TLTRO program. With fresh signals of a slowdown in the economy and a jittery bond market, is there a requirement of new decisive actions from the Central Bank?

  • Lagging” ADP calculation could underestimate actual jobs growth

    Non-farm Payrolls probably rebounded in March, making up for a murky February reading. Back in February the reading hit a 17-month low, with only 20K jobs added. Usually the start of spring supports activity in construction while manufacturing PMIs signaled about continuing revival in production sector.

  • German GDP growth revised lower unexpectedly… Is the ECB under pressure?

    European stocks are sneaking up into the familiar terrain of last August, when there was a peak of healthy optimism about the European economy.

  • Volatility preference” as a Reason for Bitcoin Growth

    Considering the risk-return preference of the traditional investor, the goal of maximizing expected return should be accompanied by the goal of minimizing risk. The volatility of asset return serves as the proxy of risk and, since it has an exogenous nature (consequence of market shocks, i.e. news), it’s essential to have an intuitive understanding of the link between volatility and risk.

  • Should we dismiss February retail sales data again? What about other reports?

    After some dire January retail sales figures following the US Government Shutdown, February’s data was expected to recoup some of the emotional balance of investors.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, April 1, 2019 – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)(CNY), German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)(EUR), Manufacturing PMI (Mar)(GBP), CPI (YoY) (Mar)(EUR), Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)(USD), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)(USD).

  • Mnuchin sounds upbeat ahead of new round of trade talks, helps traders to boost risky bets

    US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin sounded upbeat on Friday saying that he had a “productive working dinner” in Beijing on the eve of another round of talks aimed at resolution of the trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world.

  • Is the ECB regretting the end of QE?

    After the ECB completed its asset buying program in December, the economy barely showed signs of self-sustained growth, with trade wars seemingly choking growth substantially.

  • Is the ECB losing grip on its policy?

    Delving into the territory of negative interest rates, ECB policy has produced many side effects, some of which can be encompassed by the broad definition of “increased risk-taking”.

  • Industrial Profits in China Indicates Slowing Manufacturing – Key Burden on the Economy.

    The Chinese industrial sector continues to be an increasingly painful burden on the economy. Data released on Wednesday indicated that in the first two months of 2019, profits of enterprises suffered the strongest decline since 2011. The slowdown in domestic and foreign demand is fueling growth of the surplus of production capacity, a structural issue of the sector. It’s aggravated further by the transformation to the consumer growth model.