• The Fed is waiting for inflation but it’s not here yet

    The Fed is waiting for inflation but it’s not here yet. Excluding fuel prices, import prices remained unchanged in September, the Ministry of Commerce reported on Friday. Export prices saw no changes in September, after declining by 0.2% and 0.5% over the previous two months.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, October 15, 2018 – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)(USD), CPI (QoQ) (Q3)(NZD).

  • Brunson’s upcoming release sends relief waves to USDTRY

    Turkish currency strengthened against the dollar on Friday, the eve of the hearing on the case of American pastor Andrew Brunson who was arrested in Ankara. The diplomatic spat following Brunson’s detention ruined relations between the United States and Turkey.

  • Will the Fed continue to hike rate aggressively?

    The stock market crashes, growing trade tensions with China, low growth forecasts from the IMF, and even Trump’s verbal attacks are likely to not be able to stop the “insane” Fed from further rate hikes.

  • S&P 500 is close to 200-SMA, markets hope that the Fed will retreat

    World stock markets plunged into gloom on Wednesday after investors questioned the steadfast posture of US stock indices. The wave of correction, the strongest since February 2018, has lashed on American stocks, reflecting the unanimous opinion of investors that Powell has “overdone” with hawkish comments in his last speech.

  • Gold peg to Yuan tightens as economy outlook deteriorates

    Donald Trump repeated his biggest threat on Tuesday that China could face tariffs on all exports to the United States if it attempts to retaliate previous rounds of tariffs. Verbal pressure gains magnitude amid growing slack in the Chinese economy which becomes increasingly hard to deny. The authorities can keep unmoved countenance in front of confirmed patriots.

  • Yuan starts to feel the pain of the Chinese economy’s slowdown

    Chinese authorities hiked the exchange reference rate of USDCNY to 6.9019 yuan on Tuesday. From the perspective of traders this became the guidance to short yuan further, which they actually did. This also stirred more concerns about the growing weakness of the Chinese economy.

  • PBOC RR illustrates deepening problems in the Chinese economy

    The employment situation in the United States continued to develop in September in accordance with the definition of a healthy labor market. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 3.7%, wages increased by 0.3% compared to August. The number of new jobs increased by 134K, which did not meet expectations, but the stability of the dollar after the report proves that the market attributed weakness to the deterioration of weather on the East Coast.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, October 8, 2018 – Caixin Services PMI (Sep)(CNY), German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)(EUR).

  • EU Barnier: Crucial Irish border matter can be resolved soon, points to the exit from Brexit deadlock

    The European Union’s chief negotiator on Brexit, Michelle Barnier, told diplomats in Brussels on Thursday that the completion of divorce deal with Britain was “very close,” two sources said at the meeting.

  • Powell’s hawkish remarks might warrant somewhat solid job figures

    The “star day” of the US labor market has arrived, and the labor department will provide us with a fresh insight about its shape in the monthly report today. New jobs are expected to fall from 201K in August to 185K in September, which corresponds to an average of three months at 185K. However, in conditions of low unemployment and inflated stock market thanks to fiscal stimulus, the data will.

  • Powell’s unusual “verbal stimulus” creates storm on the global bond markets

    Heads of the central bank have been probably envying Powell’s clarity in recent communication. Dollar sellers hardly believed that the hawkish leg of Fed’s course was over; the chairman made an unusual move signalling it’s too early to relax while speaking yesterday with in an extremely frank fashion regarding the policy of interest rates.

  • Italy folds to EU’s pressure but the war of words seems to not be over

    After two days of heavy sell-off on the euro and Italian bonds as a sign of market dissent with the fiscal course the Italian government, the latter finally came to their senses. As expected, the Italian populists made concessions and announced that they are ready to reduce the budget deficit to 2% in the near future. By 2019, it should be reduced to 2.2% and by 2020 to 2.0%. Of course, this hardly comes in line with EU expectations, although it seems to be a solid argument for euro sceptics to pause pressure on the euro.

  • Italian rumors – the only source of pressure on the euro?

    Generally speaking, the dip in price pressure on the resource market provides, in my opinion, an insight into how the manufacturing sector responded to inflation outbreak by slowly increasing output which helped to dissipate price pressure which occurred in a discreet fashion.

  • Will the NAFTA deal boost risk appetite?

    The news that Canada will be a member of trilateral NAFTA pact may allow bulls to push this week on the “happy end” scenario in Trump’s protectionist undertaking. The progress in tough negotiations was quite a surprising piece of information, given Canada’s economic and political sensitivity on the remaining controversies.