• Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Tuesday, February 26, 2019 – Inflation Report Hearings(GBP), Building Permits (Dec)(USD), CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)(USD), Fed Chair Powell Testifies (USD).

  • Easing inflation pressure may prompt ECB to consider new round of TLTRO

    According to data released on Friday, inflation in the eurozone eased in January, the rate of decrease was not as significant as preliminary data showed.

  • The capital-labor tradeoff. Why US firms continue to hire?

    Orders for durable goods missed estimates in December showed data released on Thursday.

  • Are Global Central banks in a “stealth” gold-buying mode?

    While the dollar is being dumped in the short-term presumably on expectations of a happy end to trade negotiations, and the yen is sinking after warnings from the head of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda, gold seems to be taking the opportunity to swiftly update medium-term peaks

  • BoJ doubles down on easing commitment, sending the Yen lower

    The head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, said on Tuesday that the central bank is ready to increase stimulus if periods of sharp yen appreciation could hurt the economy and derail BoJ plans to achieve a target inflation rate of 2%.

  • Two ECB officials see bearish shift in the policy if weak growth persists

    Several ECB policymakers made comments on Friday and Monday that were disappointing for the euro.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, February 18, 2019 – United States – Washington’s Birthday.

  • Fed’s Brainard: Balance sheet normalization should end this year

    The Fed needs to stop the balance sheet reduction by the end of 2019, Leil Brainard, a member of the FOMC, said on Thursday, signalling that the central bank’s bond portfolio could ultimately remain significantly higher than expected just a few months ago.

  • Why we can’t fully trust December Retail Sales

    Earlier this week, the Bank of America warned investors about a possible slump of retail sales, using internal card spending data to build the forecast:

  • When everybody sells, who buys? Who is supporting the US equities now?

    The US stock market and the Chinese yuan soared on rumors that President Trump is considering the option to move the deadline in negotiations with China, presumably by 60 days.

  • The breakdown of term and credit spread. Why China may expect more corporate defaults?

    While the market is bracing for probably dismal data on China’s trade, which will once again stress the significance of external risks for the policy of global central banks, China’s corporate debt market turns our attention to its troubles.

  • Swiss franc flash crash – PBOC fills banks with liquidity

    A month later, after various spikes ranging from tens to thousands pips in pairs with the yen, lira and sterling (and this happens on the most liquid foreign exchange market!), swiss franc joined the party on Monday.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, February 11, 2019 – GDP (QoQ) (Q4)(GBP), Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec)(GBP).

  • Fed’s Bullard: December policy move could be premature

    Federal Reserve continues to stoke concerns over its policy signalling recent rate hike could be premature. According to James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December hike probably made monetary too restrictive as it threatens sustainable convergence of inflation to the target.

  • Could buying negative-yield JGB bring about opportunities?

    The return of the Central banks’ dovish mode, especially the recent Fed’s U-turn, prompts investors to reassess the risks of investing in high-yielding stocks and pay attention to fixed-income securities, i.e.