• The genuine reason behind the delayed Trump tariffs

    The delay of the new round of Trump tariffs on some imports from September to December gave rise to various rumors about the genuine reasons for this decision.

  • Who will win in the currency war? A brief analysis.

    What’s the price of winning a currency war? This question is probably the key in determining the winner, as losses can be significant while it’s impossible to achieve an absolute victory over the enemy.

  • ZEW Report Warns New Risk Emerges for the Growth Outlook – currency wars

    The beginning of this week turned out to be quite calm in terms of economic events.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Tuesday, August 13, 2019 – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)(GBP), Claimant Count Change (Jul)(GBP), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)(EUR), Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)(USD).

  • Russian oil minister Novak: output cuts should cover possible decline in oil demand

    The size of output cuts agreed at the latest OPEC meeting were calculated by taking into account a possible slowdown in consumption, said Russian oil Minister Novak replying to Reuters question.

  • How does the PBOC manipulate Yuan? Real effective RMB exchange rate.

    Following the steep decline of the mainland renminbi against the dollar, above the 7 mark, and following the PBOC’s “don’t panic!”

  • Upbeat China exports could hide growing “transshipment” goods flow

    Surprising uptick in Chinese foreign trade data for July showed that exporters are able to satisfactorily solve the problem of diversifying sources of foreign demand (or implement workarounds) as direct trade with the main partner – United States – continues to sag under the tariff burden.

  • Are Fiat Currencies Losing Battle Against Gold?

    Rapid rise of the gold price this week was somewhat particular as the yellow metal renewed historical peaks against a number of fiat currencies:

  • US labels China as a currency manipulator. But what does it really mean for China?

    The US Treasury Department’s clock is ticking as China finally reached its limit after the currency of the second largest economy “so easily fell into the abyss” on Monday.

  • Will the Fed Cut Rates in September?

    All hot debates about the “strange” lack of inflationary effects on US CPI from tariffs on Chinese goods usually generate two satisfactory explanations

  • Fed Meeting Review: Hard time for Powell to Explain Fed Decisions

    As I wrote in the article “Preview of the Fed Meeting: Hard Data vs. Soft data Puzzle for the Fed”, strong US economic data throughout July left the contour of risks quite blurred for the Fed. They were mainly comprised of the risks in foreign trade, and to a lesser extent of the risks of inflationary expectations drifting away from the Fed’s benchmarks, becoming difficult to control (“deanchoring inflation expectations”).

  • PMI Data Shows Chinese Government Still Struggling to Deliver Targeted Measures, Despite Record Support!

    Despite a record amount of cheap debt poured into the economy and the expansion of fiscal spending, surveys of company managers showed that stagnation with a slight bias to recession resumed in China in July.

  • BoJ Takes Pause in opening New Season of “Cheap Money”, Complicating Decision for the Fed

    Bank of Japan left the amount of monetary stimulus unchanged at the meeting on Tuesday, however, it signaled its readiness to cut rates and ramp up bond purchases significantly if the risks associated with global growth materialize in the domestic economy.

  • Preview of the Fed Meeting: Hard Data vs. Soft Data Puzzle for the Fed

    In the last two or three FOMC meetings, it was increasingly harder for the officials to communicate their decisions properly to the markets. Teetering market expectations fed by conflicting economic and sentiment signals have been especially vulnerable to Fed’s communication mistakes. Recall Fed’s Williams speech about possible response to recessions which market took as a clear guide for a rate cut by 50 basis points. Thankfully, Fed’s spokesman was quick to issue disproof which averted disaster.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Tuesday, July 30, 2019 – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (JPY), CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)(USD), Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)(USD).