• Key Economic Events and Reports for the Week Ahead

    Monday, July 20, 2020 – PBoC Loan Prime Rate(CNY). Tuesday, July 21, 2020 – RBA Meeting Minutes(AUD), Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)(CAD). Wednesday, July 22, 2020 – Retail Sales (MoM)(AUD), Existing Home Sales (Jun)(USD), Crude Oil Inventories(Oil). Thursday, July 23, 2020 – Initial Jobless Claims(USD). Friday, July 24, 2020 – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)(GBP), German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)(EUR), Composite PMI(GBP). […]

  • BoE’s Head Bailey: There is a Recovery but it’s Uneven

    The UK economy started to gradually recover after easing of sanitary restrictions imposed during the coronavirus epidemic, however certain sectors remain weak and the long-term outlook for the economy is unclear, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday. “We are seeing a return of activity. We are starting to see this recovery,” Bailey […]

  • US: Consumer Spending too Fragile to not Extend Fiscal Stimulus

    June turned out to be a solid month for US retailers: retail sales again beat expectations, rising by 7.5% MoM against the forecast of 5%. However, partial reinstatement of lockdowns and related firm closures, rising unemployment and looming end of the pandemic unemployment benefits program suggest that momentum in consumer spending may soon begin to […]

  • USD/RUB: Potential Drop Ahead?

    Today we review the potential future of currency pair EUR/USD, Russian ruble, and stock index S&P500.

  • Is the EURUSD Poised to Gain More?

    The dollar finally went into defense on Wednesday, the USD index broke through 96 points, the lowest since the start of June. Breaking down the index into components, it can be seen that the move was driven predominantly by strengthening of euro: In the trade-weighted USD index euro has the biggest weight which also contributed […]

  • Gold’s Renewed Momentum Hints Markets are Worried about US Inflation

    Gold’s renewed momentum was one of the most notable market events this week, sending price to a new 2020 high: It looks like bulls and bears argued for two months about the direction as the price stalled in the range between key levels of $1680 – $1745. Finally, sellers capitulated. Last month, around May 18, […]

  • Oil Prices at 3.5 month High as OPEC+ deal Compliance Improves

    Oil prices continued advance on Tuesday, Brent gained $2 rising to $43 per barrel, the highest level since early March. Obviously, sentiment in the market remains positive, thanks to the fact that constructive rhetoric from the OPEC, regarding compliance of several participants, has finally appeared. One of the weak links in the OPEC+ deal is […]

  • OPEC+ June Meeting: Level of Compliance, Demand Recovery Hint about Dovish Decision

    Oil prices advanced by more than 2% on Tuesday on expectations that the June OPEC+ talks would have a positive outcome for the market.

  • Oil is Coming Back to Life

    Today we review the potential future of currency pair EUR/USD, oil, and British pound.

  • Key Economic Events and Reports of the Coming Week

    Monday, June 1, 2020 – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)(CNY), German Manufacturing PMI (May)(EUR), Manufacturing PMI (May)(GBP), ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)(USD). Tuesday, June 2, 2020 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)(AUD). Wednesday, June 3, 2020 – GDP (QoQ) (Q1)(AUD), German Unemployment Change (May)(EUR), ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)(USD), BoC Interest Rate Decision(CAD). Thursday, June 4, 2020 – Construction PMI (May)(GBP), […]

  • Eurozone Risks Spiralling into Deflation in the Coming Months

    Eurozone inflation continued to decline due to falling oil prices, but the underlying price pressure remained stable.

  • “Absurd” Employment Situation in the US and Possible Consumption Shock in August

    The rally in equities was brought to a halt with mild retracement in the US stocks observed on Thursday.

  • AUDCAD: Can’t Divide the key Level

    In this post we examine the AUDCAD’s outlook amid the mounting tensions between the US and China.

  • Gold Price Drops: What’s Next?

    Today we review potential future of the gold, currency pair EUR/USD, and the British pound.

  • BoJ Yield Curve Control and new Supply of Government Debt. What to Expect from the Yen?

    After DXY support at 99 points were damaged on Tuesday due to powerful risk-on move, the currency continues to cede ground on Wednesday.