• Markets are Skeptical about QE but Draghi is Adamant about the September move

    The new ECB’s stimulus package will not significantly help bring inflation back to target, economists surveyed by Reuters said, adding that the risk of recession in the eurozone has increased over the next two years. According to the September meeting, the ECB announced the resumption of asset-purchases for an indefinite period and took the deposit […]

  • The “Smart way” to Calculate GDP in China Could Hype the Real Growth Rate

    The “Official” pace of economic expansion in China in 3Q once again fell short of expectations, dropping to its lowest level in 30 years. Growth equaled the lower limit of the range set by the government at 6.0 – 6.5%. In order to maintain the growth rate in 4Q in the target range the government […]

  • A Hidden Problem of the US Consumer

    The lingering discord between the PMI surveys in the US manufacturing / non-manufacturing sector and the steady dynamics of consumption is probably the only thing that contains recession fears. As Morgan Stanley noted, the foundation of the current expansion was the absence of consumer shocks, which, in fact, began most of the past recessions. A […]