• Carry Trade Flows May Gain Momentum as China Finds Path to Recovery

    An upbeat surprise in Chinese economic data for June provided a very limited “quota” for the growing market concerns this week.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, July 15, 2019 – GDP (YoY) (Q2)(CNY), Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)(CNY), CPI (QoQ) (Q2)(NZD).

  • Dissent among Fed members grows as hard data and expectations paint different pictures

    Lail Brainard, an authoritative member of the rate-setting Fed panel, voiced support on Thursday for lower interest rates to protect the economy from risks associated with low inflation and trade uncertainty and global growth.

  • US jobs, CPI data can’t stop the rate cut as the policymakers focus on pre-emptive measures

    Friday intraday returns of the Asian shares swayed around zero as Powell comments on Thursday delivered chilling influence on risk assets and was basically spent, investors turned their focus on Chinese trade and money aggregates data while fresh Trump threats to impose sanctions against China could start to override Powell’s optimism.

  • Uber-dovish Powell gives green light for rumors about 50 bp rate cut

    Gradual deterioration of consumer and corporate confidence as an aftermath of the trade standoff becomes the central theme of the Fed’s argument in favour of fresh round of monetary stimulus, for the first time in a decade.

  • European Commission Lowers Growth Forecasts, but Euro is Hungry for Stimulus News

    The European Commission has downgraded its outlook for the pace of economic expansion in the Eurozone next year, saying that US efforts to overhaul the global trade order poses the greatest risk to the economy.

  • PBOC’s gold purchases – a signaling function for the markets?

    Official data for May showed that the Chinese Central Bank continued to diversify its portfolio of assets, reducing investments in US government bonds and increasing physical volumes of gold.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Tuesday, July 9, 2019 – JOLTs Job Openings (May)(USD), RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (NZD).

  • As US labor market gets stronger, Fed face more challenges

    US job growth exceeded expectations, NFP report data showed on Friday.

  • NFP preview: aiming for a strong comeback, in order to increase chances for extension of Fed’s “pause”

    After the slight job growth in May of just 75K, investors believe that US labor market will utilize its unexploited potential in June, gaining 160K jobs.

  • China’s “final touch” in the gloomy picture of global manufacturing PMIs

    Stock markets in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, as it seems that the buoyancy related to G-20 trade truce is giving way to concerns about new tariffs against the EU and the global deterioration in manufacturing PMIs.

  • Manufacturing slows global growth, hit by trade war and weak oil price mix

    Global index of activity in the manufacturing sector, calculated by JP Morgan, shows the worst performance in 6.5 years as the gauge has been in the downward trend since early 2018, diving into contraction zone for the last two months.

  • More than simply a trade truce

    The signs of softening stance of the White House in talks with China before the two leaders met at the G-20 summit (Trump’s phone call to Xi, reports about “extended ” meeting), to the general surprise, were not empty speculations, but a forerunner to extending the truce.

  • Yet another example of news trading “fiasco”.

    Algo trader and investor sensitivity to the trade war headlines should have increased before the Trump-Xi meeting in Japan. This is because, not only the number of mentions has risen, but their importance has increased too, helping to get additional precision in calibrating expectations of the possible trade talks outcome.

  • The Fed is resisting political pressure, but US economy is calling for lower rates

    Tuesday’s meeting with Fed Chair, Powell, was dedicated to economic forecasts and monetary policy.