• Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, March 25, 2019 – German Ifo Business Climate Index(EUR).

  • EU Tusk: All options possible for UK’s future with EU

    EU leaders agreed on an extension of the Brexit deadline for two weeks, till April 12, if the UK Prime Minister May fails to secure support from the parliament for her deal with Brussels.

  • Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Stock Rotation: How it can predict a slump in the US economy?

    Fed Policymakers confirmed their marked shift in tone after their meeting on Wednesday, with a downward revision of inflation and GDP forecasts, as well as significant downgrade of the dot plot.

  • Yuan’s confident rally drops some clues about trade talks success

    The Asian markets opened on Wednesday with a decline as a result of investors’ tendency to liquidate their long positions in Asian stocks before the period of high market turbulence. The meeting of FOMC officials is today, which should determine the fate of monetary tightening cycle in the US.

  • Only recession could be worse: Why the Fed’s Wednesday surprise lies between neutral to mildly bullish range.

    On the eve of the FOMC decision on Wednesday, the market is contemplating two base case scenarios: soft policy comments, while preserving the possibility of 1 rate hike this year and 1 in 2020, or an even softer bias with only 1 rate hike in 2019 with a corresponding downside revision of economic forecast.

  • Will carry trade bonanza continue?

    With world central banks shelving their plans to tighten credit conditions, investors were forced to hunt for yields in emerging markets, making carry trade the “top choice” in terms of risk/reward in the first quarter of 2019.

  • 下周关键经济事件和报告

    2019年3月19日周二——澳洲联储会议记录,英国1月份包括奖金在内的平均收入指数,英国2月份失业救济申领人数变动,欧洲经济研究中心德国3月份经济景气指数。

  • IEA: Oil market should expect a deficit in the 2Q of 2019

    Small deficit in the oil market is expected in the second quarter of this year, but the OPEC has sufficient reserve capacity to prevent price increases in the event of possible supply disruptions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

  • Trade terms improve for the US, but housing market disappoints

    Following a strong Core PCE growth of 1.9% in February, import prices in the US also rose by 0.6%, after a slight increase of 0.1% in January and a fall of 1.4% in December.

  • Lunar Year weighs on February data but the outlook remains dim

    Industrial production growth in China slowed to a 17-year low in the first two months of this year, fueling expectations that the “difficult child” of the Chinese economy will draw more attention from the authorities, mainly in the form of financial support.

  • Retail sales still miss welcomed rebound in car sales

    In the first quarter of 2019, the US economy did not perform a miracle. Retail sales rose a mere 0.2% in January, after the little tragedy in December, when the seasonally favorable month was marked by surprisingly sluggish consumer activity. The revised value for December was probably the biggest negative point of yesterday’s report.

  • What “gold rush” of Central Banks tells us about credit risk in US Treasuries?

    The data on China’s foreign exchange reserves, which is reluctantly and irregularly released by the PBOC, indicated another increase in gold reserves for three consecutive months (December-February) to 60.26 million ounces.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, March 11, 2019 – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)(USD), Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)(USD).

  • Gloomy world growth forecasts dent oil consumption outlook

    The head of ECB Mario Draghi, said during the meeting on Thursday that the economy was going through a “period of weakness and widespread uncertainty”, spooking equity investors and drawing capital flows to fixed-income securities.

  • Chinese exports show Lunar Year celebration came at a price for the economy

    With the data on foreign trade for February, China has decisively emerged as the leading source of gloomy economic headlines.