• Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, January 21, 2019 – GDP (YoY) (Q4)(CNY), Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)(CNY).

  • ECB may postpone rate hike due to weakness in economic data

    The European Central Bank is expected to postpone the hike of deposit rate till the fourth quarter – it’s longer than expected just a month ago, according to economists surveyed by Reuters, who also said that the probability of a recession in the eurozone has increased.

  • Headwinds to the BOJ’s policy are likely to increase this year

    Consumer inflation in Japan slowed down in December, once again emphasizing the impotence of the Bank of Japan in stimulating price growth. The main explanatory variable of the Japanese CPI is now energy costs, since there is a clear relationship between realized with some lag:

  • Beige book shows Fed could raise rates but opted for market friendship

    Beige book, a concentrated “clot” of corporate impressions about the conditions for doing business in the United States were released by Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

  • Case for a bullish view on Pound after May’s fiasco

    The British Parliament rejected Teresa May’s plan on Britain’s divorce with the EU. It was the government’s biggest failure since 1924, a vote showed.

  • Markets unsure of PBOC’s creativity in easing

    Chinese banks increased lending in December, data showed on Tuesday.

  • Advance exports: Why Chinese trade data entered the red zone

    The global outlook was deeply impacted by the drastic drop in Chinese trade in December. The data on Monday showed that both exports and imports declined, with the pace of decline rising to the highest levels it has been in more than two years.

  • Fed minutes review: How can IOER control effective fed funds rate?

    The architects of the market-unfriendly term called “Fed tightening policy” put its stability under great doubt, as was shown by the December Fed minutes.

  • Markets seem to be hungry for progress in the US-China trade talks

    Shares of Asian firms rose to the highest mark of three and a half weeks, seemingly infected with Wall Street’s optimism, where there is a gradual synchronization of sentiments with the investor-friendly news background.

  • $50 “magic mark” for WTI – is it really the price where drilling becomes profitable?

    Among the numerous reports that allowed us to get an insight into the US energy sector (discount on WTI prices in the Permian basin, upgrade of transport infrastructure, inventories and ominous production forecasts from EIA), the report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on January 3 was the black sheep.

  • The Fed has blinked. Is it the right time to start “buying the dip”?

    US stocks soared by more than three percent last Friday, and naturally, the amplitude of the “counter-attack” does not allow simply to write off everything to a bullish correction within the bear market.

  • The paradoxes of December’s NFP

    While Trump has shut down the government and some government agencies went on vacation, the labor ministry was able to secure funding.

  • Are US Treasuries no longer a safe haven?

    The mix of fiscal and monetary measures with quite opposed vectors of impact imposed interesting constraints on the traditional trade-off between risk-free and yielding assets in the US this year.

  • Dot plot was the single important Fed data; Powell’s speech was largely ignored

    Whoever followed yesterday’s Fed meeting, probably noticed one thing. The market “lost interest” in the meeting, as soon as he saw the updated dot plot. Jeremy Powell’s speech was of secondary importance. As if only the choice of the hawk / dove in the position was interesting, and the true reasons for this choice were not important.

  • OPEC cuts may be “largely ineffective” as US producers are hungry for new demand

    Oil prices appear to have completely lost any foothold on Tuesday, collapsing by almost 7%, while there seemingly was no universal trigger for the sell-off like EIA reports, OPEC statement or news on cuts of oil imports.