• US and Vietnam: from “Best Friends” to Trade Rivals?

    Next possible leg of the trade war may affect countries that have emerged victorious at the expense of first victims.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Tuesday, July 23, 2019 – Existing Home Sales (Jun)(USD).

  • IEA’s Birol: Oil consumption forecast can be revised to the downside in the coming months

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut forecast for oil consumption in 2019 due to flattening growth of the global economy and persisting risks from trade standoff between US and China, said Fatih Birol, the head of organization.

  • Fed Williams’ “Brilliant Failure” in Communication Sparked jolt on the Markets

    After it became clear that the Fed is going to cut rates in July, market expectations had a room to develop only towards the most bearish outcome (50 bp cut), pressuring dollar and pushing safe heavens and bonds higher.

  • Policy Bias in China: Fighting with Credit Leverage or Adding more Stimulus?

    A key gauge of the debt burden in Chinese economy exceeded 300% of GDP, the Institute of International Finance reported.

  • Market discounts retail sales data focusing on the Fed comments as July meeting looms

    Greenback posted surprisingly muted response to strong US retail sales on Tuesday, despite of actual figures printing almost twice higher than the estimates. Some traders went on vacation, the rest opted to focus on the Fed’s comments, so the mix of lowered trading volumes and weakened importance of the “hard data” only helped Dollar to sustain gains slightly above 97 level during the trading session on Wednesday.

  • Saudi Arabia Under Pressure as the “Oil Market Goes Green”

    Oil prices renewed their decline, maintaining the bearish tone set on Monday. US producers are gradually resuming oil production in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Barry, in what serves as the basis for downbeat expectations for API and EIA inventory updates this week.

  • Carry Trade Flows May Gain Momentum as China Finds Path to Recovery

    An upbeat surprise in Chinese economic data for June provided a very limited “quota” for the growing market concerns this week.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, July 15, 2019 – GDP (YoY) (Q2)(CNY), Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)(CNY), CPI (QoQ) (Q2)(NZD).

  • Dissent among Fed members grows as hard data and expectations paint different pictures

    Lail Brainard, an authoritative member of the rate-setting Fed panel, voiced support on Thursday for lower interest rates to protect the economy from risks associated with low inflation and trade uncertainty and global growth.

  • US jobs, CPI data can’t stop the rate cut as the policymakers focus on pre-emptive measures

    Friday intraday returns of the Asian shares swayed around zero as Powell comments on Thursday delivered chilling influence on risk assets and was basically spent, investors turned their focus on Chinese trade and money aggregates data while fresh Trump threats to impose sanctions against China could start to override Powell’s optimism.

  • Uber-dovish Powell gives green light for rumors about 50 bp rate cut

    Gradual deterioration of consumer and corporate confidence as an aftermath of the trade standoff becomes the central theme of the Fed’s argument in favour of fresh round of monetary stimulus, for the first time in a decade.

  • European Commission Lowers Growth Forecasts, but Euro is Hungry for Stimulus News

    The European Commission has downgraded its outlook for the pace of economic expansion in the Eurozone next year, saying that US efforts to overhaul the global trade order poses the greatest risk to the economy.

  • PBOC’s gold purchases – a signaling function for the markets?

    Official data for May showed that the Chinese Central Bank continued to diversify its portfolio of assets, reducing investments in US government bonds and increasing physical volumes of gold.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Tuesday, July 9, 2019 – JOLTs Job Openings (May)(USD), RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (NZD).