• Turkish lira declines further – Brief overview of share buybacks in US

    Turkish lira resumed decline on Monday despite the rate hike by Turkish CB to 24%, which seems to have been expected to raise costs for lira bearish positions, i.e. make them less profitable

  • Russian Ruble forms a fine bullish trap

    In this post, we discuss what is going to happen to the Russian Ruble and where the European index is heading. We also analyze the future of cross rate of EUR/AUD.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Take a look at what global markets have in store for the upcoming week.

  • Gold prices stall as Trump curbs optimism on trade talks

    Gold prices rose on Friday morning as US President Donald Trump curbed upbeat beliefs on the resumption of trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

  • Time to start worrying about your dollar longs?

    The ECB held a meeting yesterday and, although the forecasts for the GDP were indeed lowered, the market turned a deaf ear to the bearish part of the report as it was information that was rather anticipated. The market focused instead on Draghi’s verbal assessment of economic recovery and comments on inflation.

  • ECB: Keeping low profile

    Yesterday, the US Treasury held an auction of 10-year bonds offering $23B of them. Let me remind you that the US bond auction events should be closely monitored, since the bond supply is rising (to raise money for tax reform), while rate hikes and economic growth negatively affect demand in terms of yield and in terms of appetite to risk.

  • 10YR US auction may push the yields above 3%

    Yet another deluge of Treasury bonds thanks to the US Treasury happened on Wednesday, but with each new auction investors seem less and less happy with the rapidly rising bond supply. Trying to shift future consumption towards current one through tax cuts, the government was forced to increase the speed of borrowing, but expectations of a hawkish Fed increased the borrowing costs as well, making it pricier for government to raise money through debt.

  • Pound drops following job pay data as rate hike may be delayed

    Following Donald Trump’s warnings on Friday that he is ready to introduce tariffs on virtually all imports from China, the Chinese foreign minister said that China will retaliate if the US takes new actions in the trade war.

  • NFP review and some notes about the ECB meeting due this week

    Surprisingly, the greenback was offered support from the economic front on Friday, after the unemployment report confirmed the firm tread of the US economy. However, the systematic reassessment of job creation in August, according to data for the past seven years, convinces us to look at the revised data in September to get a more accurate picture of the labor market.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, September 10, 2018 – GDP (QoQ) (Q2)(JPY), GDP (MoM)(GBP), Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul)(GBP).

  • Ruble likely to dive deeper as Skripal case starts to bite

    Britain and its allies will apply a “whole arsenal of measures” against Russia after London accused two officers of Russian military intelligence of an attempt against former agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Jeremy Fleming, said the director of the British Center for Government Communications on Thursday.

  • US Payrolls may have prepared a downside surprise for you

    The dollar edges lower on Friday as expected, the calls for strengthening are likely to stop acting as there are no big hopes for the NFP report. Job growth in the US is likely to have accelerated in August, unemployment is expected to fall to 3.8%, which is the lowest in 18 years. As I said yesterday, expectations for the US economy are already too high, so an increment to positive mood won’t come easy and the dollar is harder to surprise with good data.

  • Smooth US-Canada talks can wake up big dollar bears

    The dollar is erasing gains after the strong performance at the start of this week on reports that the US and Canada are back on track to complete the NAFTA negotiations. The search for trade-offs can continue even tonight, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Canada said.

  • US stocks market and Nash Equilibrium

    The warnings about imminent crash of the US stock market are gradually being replaced in headlines with reports about the robust state of the economy and the solid footing of US firms. It is in such an atmosphere that the stock market attempts to leave behind historical highs, “marginal buyers” should begin to appear in the US market.

  • AUD is doomed for slump after dovish RBA

    Asian markets kept sliding on Tuesday while the dollar remained stable as the markets are threatened by the escalation of conflict between the US and China and the problems of emerging markets. The emergency austerity measures taken by Argentina indicate an imminent crisis of fiscal policy as the state gradually halts the fulfillment of some of its crucial obligations.