• European economy is losing momentum; slower growth is predicted in Q4

    According to the government data released on Friday, the pace of expansion of eurozone business activity in December slowed to the lowest level in four years.

  • ECB halts QE but quite unsure about rate hike timeframe

    The ECB decided to completely quit the lavish asset purchase program at the meeting on Thursday, which was in line with expectations, but retained flexibility in other monetary tools, providing a vague forecast for the rate hike next year.

  • November US CPI may follow lackluster wages, Fed to call off March rate hike

    The Asian and European markets rose on Wednesday thanks to positive comments from the US president regarding the trade deal, freeing Huawei top manager Meng on bail.

  • Meng’s life charges possibly require political interference

    A trade agreement with China should be reached by March 1 or new tariffs will be introduced, said US Trade Representative Robert Lightizer on Sunday, thus specifying the final deadline for negotiations with China.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, December 10, 2018 – GDP (MoM)(GBP), Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)(GBP), JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)(USD).

  • Gold rallies ahead of Fed meeting as Powell maintains bullish view on the economy

    Gold prices rose, while the dollar was trading sideways during the Asian session on Friday after Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell issued a bullish assessment of the US economy on Thursday.

  • A short guide: How to use data on the T-bills to estimate future Fed rate hikes?

    Amid growing jittery that the Fed made a mistake picking up the quarterly pace of rate hikes and reluctantly admits its flaw, the US term structure of interest rates earns back the status of a “reliable predictor” of a looming slowdown.

  • Huawei – the new bone of contention between China and US

    Despite the catchy headlines of the reports covering the OPEC meeting, the oil market preferred to read between the lines, making frowning conclusion from the statements: the cartel members could not move further from the mere awareness that the threat of oversupply exists.

  • Plunging stocks point to the Fed’s mistake as traders move into fixed returns

    Since the time of writing about the 0Yr-2Yr spread’s omen, the sell-off of short-term and buying long-term Treasuries seems to have gained momentum.

  • US Fixed income market does not believe in the economy expansion

    Powell has already decided to accommodate the markets, implicitly announcing a desire to slow down in raising rates, but this was not enough.

  • The light at the end of the tunnel: Trump and Xi enter a temporary truce

    The meeting of US and China leaders in Argentina, probably one of the key events of this year, ended with a decision of a 90-day truce in the trade war between the two countries

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, December 3, 2018 – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(CNY), German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(EUR), Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(GBP), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(USD).

  • European stocks fall amidst anxiety around the G20 summit in Argentina

    European stock indices fell on Friday amid lacklustre activity indices in China, which revived concerns about slowing economic growth, and investor anxiety in the run-up to trade negotiations between the leaders of the United States and China.

  • Fed-fueled rally fades as markets concentrate on Trump-Xi meeting

    In continuation of my Thursday discussion about the stock market rally, volatility responded curiously to Powell’s speech on Wednesday.

  • Powell was too “clear” which he now seems to regret

    The Fed has surrendered. Powell’s speech on Wednesday marked a steep downgrade in the Fed’s hawkish policy to a market-friendly one, since in just a month the outlook for several rate hikes has been trimmed to one, well, maybe two increases.