• US Government Shutdown is Off the Table as White House and Congress Agree On the Budget

    Senior Congressional negotiators on Thursday reached a preliminary agreement with the White House on a number of bills to finance federal agencies until September 30, 2020 – hopefully preventing a partial government shutdown next week.

  • A “Christmas Tale” About A Trade Deal

    December is a very awkward time for new tariffs.

  • “Phase one” deal is unlikely. But perhaps the tariffs hike is too.

    As the deadline for the December tariffs is approaching and there is growing appeal to “trade the event”, let’s review again the reasons why the “Phase One” deal will likely be delayed.

  • China Closes Uyghur ‘Training Centres’ While Farmers ‘Sponge Off’ the US Government

    Today I’d like to share with two things you that have come to my attention, which may affect the odds of the trade deal and Trump’s Re-Election

  • What You Need to Know About the November NFP Besides Headline Figures.

    GM workers are back at their workplaces.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Tuesday, December 10, 2019 – Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook(AUD), GDP (QoQ) (Q3)(GBP), Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)(GBP), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)(EUR).

  • US PMI: More Disappointment as Business Activity Fades

    The number of downside surprises in the US economic data continues to increase, what cannot be said about European economic data.

  • Soybeans and Pork: The Trade War Intricacies you Need to Know

    China said on Friday that it will abolish part of import tariffs on US soybeans and pork.

  • Japan is Likely to Start Borrowing Again. What to Expect from the Yen?

    Federal Reserve’s endeavours revived risk appetite in late summer – early September and the negative-yield bond market lost its scary size.

  • ISM Data Hits Greenback While Trading Rivals Gain Footing

    Buying focus shifts to the markets outside of the United States.

  • Does global economic data support the last leg of the US stock market rally?

    Global markets were relatively quick to flip bets on modest global recovery, of which early signs appeared in September, following a year and a half slowdown for most of 2019. At the peak of the negative outlook, investors could only accept negative bond yields on bonds worth $17 trillion. But, the reality is that global economic signals give us only a mixed picture at best.

  • Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

    Monday, December 2, 2019 – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(CNY), German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(EUR), Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(GBP), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)(USD).

  • Surprising Decline in German Economy is Positive News for the Euro

    Unemployment in Germany unexpectedly declined this month as the manufacturing industry regained footing while the trade stress, which prevented stifled exports growth, eased.

  • Can we expect a Rebound in Manufacturing PMIs in 2020? Global car sales Say “No”

    Global automakers continue to struggle due to sluggish consumer demand in all major markets. Years of low interest rates, credit stimulus and relatively high level of average employment worldwide were insufficient to boost incomes and revive the idea of owning a car which is increasingly narrowed down to the mere need of transportation which certainly has more pragmatic solutions.  

  • Day 510 of the trade war: Trump Signs Hong Kong Bill

    Trump made a tough call to finally arm himself with bipartisan opposition towards China, by signing a controversial bill on Hong Kong on Wednesday.