• UK Labour Market Suffers Record Fall

    Largest Decline Since 2009 The British Pound has lost some of its recent upside momentum this week as the latest economic data released today painted a very bleak picture of the employment landscape. While the headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9%, better than the 4.2% expected, this is well understood to be down to […]

  • The Crude Chronicles – Episode 50

    Oil Traders Reduce Longs The CFTC COT institutional positioning report shows that traders reduced their net long positions in WTI markets last week by 16,307 contracts, taking the total position to 532569 contracts. This latest adjustment in positioning reflects the loss of upside momentum in oil markets over recent trading as growing negative risks emerge. […]

  • BOE Discussing Negative Interest Rates in The UK

    BOE Leaves Rates Unchanged The Bank of England left its monetary policy levels unchanged at its August MPC meeting yesterday along with a message that the downturn is likely to be less severe than initially thought.  However, the BOE was clear that the downturn in the UK was worse than the downturn seen in rival […]

  • Surprise Fall in New Zealand Unemployment Rate

    Unemployment Rate Beats Forecasts In a data release which has bucked the trend seen across the G10 recently, as well as confounding the New Zealand government’s own forecasts, the unemployment rate there fell back to 4% in the three months to June. Data release overnight from government agency Statistics New Zealand marked a decline in […]

  • Bank of England To Signal More Stimulus?

    BOE Meeting Due Tomorrow The Bank of England’s August MPC meeting, due tomorrow, is taking on a great deal of focus as the recovery effort continues in the UK. With most sections of the economy having at least partially re-opened now, the BOE is hoping for a smooth, gradual recovery, which relies on avoiding any […]

  • Is The UK Close To Exiting Brexit Trade Talks?

    Trade Talks At Risk The outlook for the UK economy looks to be worsening with UK newspapers reporting a warning from Downing Street sources that the UK is close to giving up on trade talks with the EU. The UK and EU are currently in a set of negotiations aimed at delivering a trade deal […]

  • Trump Makes Dramatic U-Turn on Masks

    Trump Now Supporting Mask Wearing In a dramatic u-turn on an issue which many feel his handling of has potentially put an end to his chances of re-election, Trump last night conceded that the COVID-19 crisis will “get worse before it gets better”. In a press conference held at the White House, Trump asked US […]

  • The IndeX Files 21-07-2020

    Risk Sentiment Rallies On Fresh Vaccine Optimism Global equities benchmarks continue to trade to the upside this week as the latest COVID-19 reports continue to migrate away from second wave risks and more towards hopes of a potential vaccine. Following the recent announcement from Pfizer and BioNTech confirming FDA fast track status for two of […]

  • EU Leaders Strike Historic EUR 1.8trln Deal

    Deal Finally Done European assets have traded higher this week in response to news that EU leaders have finally agreed a deal for emergency funding. The deal, which comes on the back of four days and nights of negotiations, will provide a historic 1.8 trillion EUR in aid. As part of the funding agreed, the […]

  • The Investment Bank Outlook 20-07-2020

    RBC Capital Markets Week ahead: Q2 earnings announcements continue in the US and will be key for equity market direction this week, more so given the dearth of US economic data. Outside the US, the first July data (flash PMIs) in the Eurozone and UK will be the main focus (Friday) and Canada has May […]

  • Precious Metals Monday 20-07-2020

    Gold Gold prices have started the week in a rather subdued fashion with the safe haven metal remaining within the shallow range of consolidation which has persisted over the course of the last week. The gold market has been well supported over recent weeks amidst an uptick in fears over a potential second wave of […]

  • BOJ Lowers Growth Forecasts & Warns of Downside Risks

    Policy on Hold But Forecasts Cut At the Bank of Japan’s July rate setting meeting, held overnight, the BOJ kept its monetary policy on hold at current levels via an 8-1 vote. However, with downward revisions to its growth forecasts and warnings of downside risks to the economy, the meeting struck a decidedly bearish tone. […]

  • UK/China Rift Growing As UK Bans Huawei

    UK & China Clash Over Hong Kong Tensions between the UK and China have emerged as a fresh risk factor in recent weeks. The UK has refrained from having any direct spats with China over recent years while the US has continuously locked horns with the world’s second largest economy. However, in light of recent […]

  • Recovery in Doubt As UK Growth Seen Well Below Estimates In May

    UK GDP Very Weak in May The latest economic data released on Monday showed that UK GDP bounced back in May, following a 20.3% contraction in April. However, at just 1.8% growth on the month, the rebound was well below the 5.5% growth forecast. While the monthly reading was disappointing, growth in the three months […]

  • The IndeX Files 14-07-2020

    Virus Fears & US/China Tensions Create Headwinds For Risk Global equities benchmarks started the week with a bid tone on Monday, with most indices seeing gains initially, before sentiment weakened over the day leading to a reversal into negative territory. Selling has continued this morning at the European open as investors remain caught between the […]