The US labour market expanded in December to 148,000 jobs, almost 40,000 below the average forecast. Unemployment remained at 4.1%, and the level of participation in the workforce was approximately 2/3 (62.7%). Despite a record low unemployment rate (the minimum for 17 years), inflationary pressure on wages remains moderate (2.5% in annual terms), which does not correspond to the observed high demand for labour. This anomaly can be explained by the growing demand for low-skilled labour, where there is always a high supply and high personnel replacement, so employees cannot agree on raising salaries.
In the absence of positive salary dynamics sufficient to stimulate inflation, the FED will have to rely on the tax reform, as well as a weak dollar that will stimulate the export sector. Anticipating the need for further devaluation of the Dollar to achieve the inflation target of the Fed, investors will open short positions in the US Currency. Thus, an important fundamental factor in the economic picture of the United States that will be realized.
On Monday, the Dollar managed to restore a balance against major currencies. EUR/USD sank 0.35%, pound sterling retreated to 1.3550, but optimism on the pound remains high before the final part of Brexit talks.
The Euro did not respond positively to data on consumer confidence, which reached the highest level since December 2000. Slowly recovering from bank failures, record high unemployment and a sovereign debt crisis that marked the last decade, the economy was able to stand up. The rate of recovery in 2017 was the highest since the financial crisis and in 2018 it was predicted to be as successful as the previous one.