Voter support for the UK Labour party and its leader Corbyn in the heart of the country has nearly halved since the general election in 2017, which jeopardises a favourable election outcome for them in December.

Tories and Labour, the two leading parties in the UK parliament, have grown in popularity since May, however, they have been ceding ground to the Liberal Democrats since 2017 which gained support from those who is “losing patience” about Brexit and do not want to leave anymore.

London voters consider the issue of leaving EU as the most important, even more important than the economy and healthcare, which is how they differ from other regions, said YouGov poll, commissioned by QMUL University. For the Labor, this means that overstepping the line of testing patience of London citizens by forcing Brexit delays may eventually unwind their election gains in 2017, when the party grabbed whopping 54.5% vote share:

November YouGov poll showed the following distribution of support:

  • Support for the Conservatives and Labor in London has fallen since the election in 2017, with the former by only 4% (from 33 to 29), and the latter by 16% (from 55 to 39). The support of the Liberal Democrats has been steadily growing – from 9% to 19%.
  • If we compare November with May of this year, then the popularity of the Conservatives and Labor seems to have bottomed out and returned to growth, but the distance is shrinking (23% and 35% in May versus 29% and 39% in November 2019).

Among the three main party leaders, Corbin has the lowest satisfaction rate – 65% of respondents said that he is doing badly and only 20% was satisfied with his work. 59% are dissatisfied with Johnson’s work, while 30% consider his work acceptable.

If Corbin does not find a way to reverse the loyalty trend in the heart of the country in less than a month, his party will most likely lose their seats, making it easier for Johnson to push his Brexit option. This is favorable for Pound. Election polls are volatile, this must be taken into account, so we will continue to monitor incoming data.

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