Polls Show Gap Is Narrowing

With just fifteen days to go until the UK general elections the intensity of the campaign is accelerating, as is the media coverage around it. One of the major points of focus is the wide range of polls around the elections. In recent years, there has been a great deal of controversy around political polls given the major upsets seen over the Brexit referendum and the US elections. Nevertheless, polls continue to provide the main, trackable insight into the likely outcome of the elections.

The latest poll results are as follows:

The Kantar poll (November 21st -25th showed Conservatives with 43% of the votes and Labour with 32%. The ICM poll for Reuters (November 22nd – 25th) showed Conservatives with 41% of the votes and Labour with 34% of the votes. The Survation for GMB poll showed Conservatives with 41% of the votes and Labour with 30% of the votes.

The relevance of these latest polls is that each of the three biggest polls has shown a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and the main opposition party. The gap has now fallen to an average of 9% over the three polls, down from around 15% initially.

The lines drawn between the two parties are stark and severe. The Conservative party want to pursue the deal laid out by Boris Johnson ahead of the Brexit extension request but will settle for a no-deal Brexit as a last resort. Labour, however, wants to offer the UK electorate a second vote on Brexit – whether to accept the current deal, or remain in the EU.

The polar approached being offered by the two leading parties are what is creating the most uncertainty as, in all likelihood, neither are likely to achieve an outright majority. In the 2017 general elections, over 80% of the votes went to the two main parties. However, this figure has become diluted now, over the public’s exasperation with Brexit. Smaller parties such as the Lib Dems and, most recently, the Brexit party have been gaining strength in polls. As such, the most expected outcome of these elections is that we see another coalition government. The combination of which will determine whether the government will be pro or anti-Brexit. Again, the prospect of a hung parliament and another coalition government means that a further Brexit extension is highly likely, which will keep uncertainty elevated.

Conservative Campaign Criticised

The Conservative party has come under scrutiny recently over the way it has handled its campaign such as the changing of the party’s official twitter name to FactCheckUK during the recent debate. Johnsons has also come under fire for false campaign promises after promising to add an extra 50,000 nurses to the NHS. The details released in the party manifesto (published over the weekend) actually revealed that 19,000 of these were existing nurses that the government plans to retain.

While Labour has, of course, gained slightly on the back of the negative attention the Conservative’s have attracted, the gains have been stifled by the ongoing accusation of anti-Semitism surrounding the Labour party. This week, chief rabbi Ephraim Mirvis said that, although he usually refrains from commenting on political matters but said that “a new poison – sanctioned from the very top – has taken root” and warned voters against backing Labour. The party has faced constant claims and scandals involving anti-Semitism over the last year which have been a major drag on support for the party.

However, the party is still gaining in support and a major UK figure recently announced his public backing for Corbyn and Co. UK grime superstar Stromzy. Writing on Twitter, the youth Icon wrote “Don’t sit there and think ‘my little vote ain’t gonna do anything’ – your vote is CRUCIAL. Your ‘one little vote’ can quite literally tip the scale for what will be the most important election of our generation.

“There are several reasons as to why I’m voting for [Corbyn] – I would be here all day if I began to list them… but in my 26 years of life, I have never trusted politicians or relied on them to be the bearers of hope and righteous people that we’ve needed them to be.

“And for me, he is the first man in a position of power who is committed to giving power back to the people and helping those who need a helping hand from the government the most.”

Technical & Trade Views

GBPJPY ( Bullish, above 137.15)

GBPJPY From a technical & trade perspective. Price is still moving side-ways within the middle of the bullish channel. With longer-term VWAP still supporting, the bias remains for a continuation higher. The next near term support to watch will be the bullish trend line and monthly pivot at 137.15. While above here, a breakout higher is anticipated, targeting a move up to the yearly pivot at 145. 25.

UK Elections Update: Conservative Party Losing Ground

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