The currency pair USD/RUB jumped and so did the oil. Although the fiscal rule of the Russian Central Bank does matter otherwise Russian ruble would already skyrocket by now. So far, the most important thing is that the asset broke two strong levels such as the resistance of 69.80 and psychological level of 70.00.
We assume that Russian currency might pull back to the level of 70.00 and its near-border zones, and then it might jump away from the horizontal line. Oil might even help the Russian ruble and foreigners might want to get rid of the bonds, lowering the possible risks:
When it comes to the oil, the asset has currently entered a very strong supporting zone, which has formed around the psychological level of 30.00. But this is not all! The descending triangle has formed on the monthly chart. We don’t think that it will be broken through as oil dropped way too low now. Yet we are sure that oil will head North against the rumors about the oil getting insanely cheap etc.
Oil might really drop even further to enlighten large operators who love to benefit from the situations like this and buy “boring” assets in bulk. But this is already another story which will be played long.
All in all, oil should remain at the level of about 20 to 30 dollars per barrel and then only the triangle will be worked through:
Checking gold to oil ratio, we want to note that oil tends to overtake gold after some time. Currently, very interesting things going on: gold is heading up whereas oil is heading down. This is a pure divergence. Therefore, oil will eventually jump, and this is only a matter of time. And Russian ruble will certainly follow:
Let’s finally check what British pound is currently up to. Having pulled repeatedly from the broken uptrend, this asset is heading down, targeting the supporting level of 1.2780. Should the currency pair break the horizontal line, it might drop till the second supporting level of 1.2582, where it should pull from the level of 1.2780 that got broken earlier. And from there the asset should drop even further. This is the way British pound is alternating the levels right now:
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