Chart of the Day CADCHF
CADCHF Potential Reversal Zone – Probable Price Path
Risk sentiment has begun the week on a positive note after a poor end to last week. Since the low in the S&P500 in March, there have been drops of 2% or more on nine occasions (as occurred on Friday) and the index has recovered the next day on eight of those occasions. The see-saw pattern remains in force, with the S&P500 currently up over 1%. Buy the dip seems to be the strategy of choice.
CAD: The broader risk backdrop is mixed for the CAD and our correlation studies suggest that market volatility and the undertone of equity markets overall remain the more powerful influences on the spot market at the moment. Given the concerns noted above (regarding near-term trends in US stock markets), the CAD may be subject to some headwinds itself in the next few weeks. Month– and quarter-end plus the July 1 holiday for Canada suggest quiet-ish and perhaps choppy range trading for spot in the short term
CHF: Spot deposits, which reflect the size of the Swiss commercial bank’s cash deposits with the central bank, increased by 2.9 billion Swiss francs to 683 billion last week, or may indicate that the Swiss National Bank has resumed intervention in the recent increase in the Swiss franc
From a technical and trading perspective, CADCHF is currently testing trendline support, yesterday we witnessed a key reversal pattern in the form of a bullish engulfing pattern, overnight price action has consolidated as .6940 acts as support there is a window for price to follow through on yesterday’s bullish reversal, as such, bullish exposure should be rewarded ona breach of the overnight highs at .6967 from here bulls will target a test of the equality objective sighted at .7050
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